The political alliance between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga could jeopardize Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s ambitions, despite solidifying his position as the Mt. Kenya kingpin.
Gachagua aspires to succeed President Ruto in 2032—assuming Ruto is re-elected in 2027—but he faces significant challenges, including the rapidly shifting political landscape.
Speculation suggests that President Ruto might sideline Gachagua even before the 2027 re-election bid, with Raila’s growing influence within the government reinforcing the notion of Gachagua’s isolation.
Further complicating his position, Gachagua is dealing with internal divisions in his Mt. Kenya political base, as key figures in the region question his leadership and doubt his dominance as the area’s kingpin.
A meeting is reportedly being organized by some of Gachagua’s critics within Mt. Kenya to determine the region’s political direction.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, who also leads The Service Party, a member of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, is leading the anti-Gachagua faction. He has called for a retreat in the coming days to discuss the way forward for Mt. Kenya.
Kiunjuri recently criticized Gachagua, branding him a dictator, after the Deputy President had previously labeled Kiunjuri a traitor.
“There’s nothing that will stop us from uniting against what isn’t beneficial to our region. When 69 out of 75 elected leaders share the same view, it’s for a valid reason,” Kiunjuri remarked.
Concerns are growing that these regional divisions could weaken Mt. Kenya’s political influence ahead of the 2027 elections, potentially diminishing its bargaining power and opening the door for President Ruto to consider alternative running mates.
Some political analysts, however, believe that the Ruto-Raila pact has, in fact, strengthened Gachagua’s standing in Mt. Kenya, further securing his role as the region’s political figurehead.
During a recent joint tour of the region, President Ruto faced no hostility, with Gachagua using the opportunity to ease tensions and rally support for the Kenya Kwanza government.
However, Mt. Kenya-based political analyst Mwangi Muriuki warned that Gachagua’s political future remains uncertain in light of the Ruto-Raila deal.
“When you carefully assess the politics of Mt. Kenya, it becomes clear that although Gachagua is the region’s highest-ranking political leader, he’s not universally regarded as the kingpin. Many people don’t follow his lead,” Muriuki noted.
He added that former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s influence still looms large over the region, with several leaders remaining loyal to him despite his retirement in 2022.
“That’s why Gachagua has taken the approach of defending Uhuru against political attacks to win him over and reduce the animosity he faces,” Muriuki explained.
In a recent interview with local Mt. Kenya radio stations, Gachagua admitted that he had reconciled with Uhuru and pledged not to let any politician undermine the former president.