By Dr. Brian Lishenga
In 2022, Kakamega spoke loudly—and decisively. Raila Odinga walked away with a commanding 72% of the vote, turning the county into one of his strongest political fortresses. For President William Ruto to flip Kakamega in 2027, he doesn’t just need momentum—he needs a miracle.
Mathematically, he must convince at least 44% of Kakamega residents to cross over to his side. Politically? That task looks harder than Arsenal winning the Premier League.
On the ground, the mood is far from forgiving. Uchumi ni mbaya. The economy is biting hard. SHA ni fake, many residents say, as healthcare costs continue to rise while services shrink. Masomo ni expensive, with parents struggling to keep their children in school amid higher fees and new levies.
These are not abstract talking points—they are daily frustrations shaping voter anger and fatigue.
Then there’s the new political variable: Rigathi Gachagua, now cast by some as the administration’s chief enforcer and, increasingly, its political bogeyman.
But here’s the real question Kakamega voters may be asking themselves:
- What do we dislike more?
- Is it poor healthcare?
- Crushing taxes?
- Unaffordable education?
- Or the emergence of a Kikuyu kingpin who isn’t even on the ballot?
For many villagers, bread-and-butter issues will likely outweigh ethnic chess games. Political narratives don’t fill hospitals, lower school fees, or put food on the table. Performance does.
As 2027 approaches, Kakamega doesn’t look like a battleground—it looks like a wall. And unless the government dramatically changes both policy and perception, flipping it may remain a political fantasy.
Dr. Brian Lishenga, Founding Chairman of the Rural & Urban Private Hospitals Association (RUPHA) and Kakamega County Senatorial Aspirant, 2027