In 1980, China was poorer than India. By 2026, it will be more than twice as wealthy per person.
India: $533 per capital I 1980. Projected at $12,964 in 2026.
China: $275 in 1980. Projected at $31,023 in 2026.
China reformed in 1978. India 1991, after a crisis forced it. Those 13 years built coastal manufacturing zones, high savings rate channelled into infrastructure, and an industrial Base ready for the WTO in 2001. India’s growth came through IT and services – significant, but narrower in reach.
Most of African countries that were at India’s income level 1980 remain well below $5,000 today.
Conflict commodity dependence, debt weak institutions, and geography have all worked against faster gains. India had a stable democratic institutions, a large democratic marke, and a diaspora, sending $100 billion annually.