A fresh political storm is brewing after city journalist and Likuyani MP aspirant Clause Masika claimed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is on the brink of collapse following what he described as a mass defection of its Members of Parliament to the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Speaking to a local TV channel, Masika alleged that “almost all ODM MPs” have either formally defected or are in the process of aligning themselves with UDA, a move he says signals the political death of one of Kenya’s most influential opposition parties.
“ODM as we knew it is no longer there. What remains is a shell. The lawmakers who gave it strength have already crossed over or are preparing to cross over to UDA,” he said.
His remarks have sparked debate across the political divide, with analysts and party loyalists dismissing his claims as exaggerated and politically motivated. However, Masika maintained that the shifting allegiances are part of a broader political realignment ahead of the 2027 General Election.
According to him, many legislators are gravitating toward the ruling establishment in search of political survival, access to development resources, and strategic positioning. He argued that internal wrangles, leadership uncertainty, and growing dissatisfaction among grassroots supporters have weakened ODM’s internal cohesion.
ODM, long associated with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, has historically commanded a strong support base across several regions. However, Masika suggested that the party is now facing one of its most difficult moments, with internal cracks widening.
“Politics is dynamic. Leaders are reading the signs and moving where they feel their future is guaranteed. What we are witnessing is not betrayal, but survival,” he added.
Allies of UDA have welcomed what they describe as growing confidence in the government’s leadership, though they have not confirmed any large-scale defections as claimed.
Political observers caution that while party realignments are common in Kenya—especially as elections draw closer—declaring ODM “dead” may be premature given its historical resilience and loyal support base.
Efforts to get a response from ODM officials were not immediately successful, but a section of supporters has dismissed Masika’s remarks as speculative and politically charged.
As the country edges closer to the 2027 polls, the claims are likely to intensify debate around the future of opposition politics, party loyalty, and the shifting balance of power in Kenya.